Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
