A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
